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Teungueth vs Guédiawaye — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guédiawaye
Guédiawaye
2/14/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Teungueth41%
×Draw32%
Guédiawaye27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
1.04
Guédiawaye
0.79

Teungueth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
Guédiawaye
1.01

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
Guédiawaye
0.91

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

Guédiawaye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
73%
Teungueth or Guédiawaye
68%
Draw or Guédiawaye
59%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
16%
Guédiawaye wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
65%
Teungueth 2+ goals
28%
Teungueth 3+ goals
9%
Guédiawaye 1+ goals
55%
Guédiawaye 2+ goals
19%
Guédiawaye 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
60%
Guédiawaye (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Guédiawaye away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + Guédiawaye defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guédiawaye attack 1.01 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Teungueth scores more
41%
level
32%
Guédiawaye scores more
27%

Teungueth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teungueth vs Guédiawaye

Teungueth and Guédiawaye drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 14, 2026.