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Teungueth vs Génération Foot — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Génération Foot
Génération Foot
11/16/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Teungueth40%
×Draw33%
Génération Foot27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
1.00
Génération Foot
0.77

Teungueth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
Génération Foot
0.98

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
Génération Foot
0.83

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

Génération Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
73%
Teungueth or Génération Foot
67%
Draw or Génération Foot
60%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
15%
Génération Foot wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
63%
Teungueth 2+ goals
26%
Teungueth 3+ goals
8%
Génération Foot 1+ goals
54%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
18%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
59%
Génération Foot (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teungueth scores more
40%
level
33%
Génération Foot scores more
27%

Teungueth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Teungueth 1–0 Génération Foot

Teungueth beat Génération Foot 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 16, 2025.