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Teungueth vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
4/12/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Teungueth44%
×Draw32%
Casa Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
1.08
Casa Sport
0.69

Teungueth creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
77%
Teungueth or Casa Sport
68%
Draw or Casa Sport
56%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
18%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
66%
Teungueth 2+ goals
29%
Teungueth 3+ goals
10%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
50%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
15%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
66%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teungueth scores more
44%
level
32%
Casa Sport scores more
23%

Teungueth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Teungueth 0–0 Casa Sport

Teungueth and Casa Sport drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 12, 2026.