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Teungueth vs ASEC Ndiambour — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
2 – 0
ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
6/26/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Ngalandou Diouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Teungueth55%
×Draw30%
ASEC Ndiambour15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
1.25
ASEC Ndiambour
0.51

Teungueth creates 145% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 32 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
ASEC Ndiambour
0.44

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
ASEC Ndiambour
1.34

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
85%
Teungueth or ASEC Ndiambour
70%
Draw or ASEC Ndiambour
45%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
26%
ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
71%
Teungueth 2+ goals
36%
Teungueth 3+ goals
13%
ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
40%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
9%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
78%
ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Teungueth scores more
55%
level
30%
ASEC Ndiambour scores more
15%

Teungueth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teungueth vs ASEC Ndiambour

Teungueth beat ASEC Ndiambour 2-0 in Ligue 1 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Ngalandou Diouf in Rufisque.