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Teteks vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
4/15/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion AMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Teteks24%
×Draw22%
Voska Sport55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.25
Voska Sport
2.00

Voska Sport creates 60% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
45%
Teteks or Voska Sport
78%
Draw or Voska Sport
76%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
10%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
71%
Teteks 2+ goals
36%
Teteks 3+ goals
13%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
86%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
59%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
30%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Teteks scores more
24%
level
22%
Voska Sport scores more
55%

Voska Sport at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teteks vs Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Teteks 4-0 in Second League on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion AMS in Tetovo.