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Teteks vs Vardar Skopje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Teteks
Teteks
FT
0 – 5
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
D. Cvetanoski 81', 19'
D. Razmoski 57', 12'
R. Mitev 43'
2/4/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Teteks33%
×Draw21%
Vardar Skopje46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.71
Vardar Skopje
2.06

Vardar Skopje creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Teteks
2.00
Vardar Skopje
1.33

allows per match

Teteks
2.80
Vardar Skopje
1.42

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
54%
Teteks or Vardar Skopje
79%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
67%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
16%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
82%
Teteks 2+ goals
51%
Teteks 3+ goals
24%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
87%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
61%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
41%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 2.00 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vardar Skopje attack 1.33 + Teteks defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Teteks scores more
33%
level
21%
Vardar Skopje scores more
46%

Vardar Skopje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Razmoski
19'
D. Cvetanoski
43'
R. Mitev
57'
D. Razmoski
81'
D. Cvetanoski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Teteks 0–5 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Teteks 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 4, 2023.

Goals: D. Razmoski (12', 57'), D. Cvetanoski (19', 81'), R. Mitev (43').