Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teteks vs Detonit Plachkovica — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
9/23/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Stadion AMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Teteks36%
×Draw25%
Detonit Plachkovica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.36
Detonit Plachkovica
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Detonit Plachkovica
1.33

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Detonit Plachkovica
1.15

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
61%
Teteks or Detonit Plachkovica
75%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
64%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
16%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
74%
Teteks 2+ goals
39%
Teteks 3+ goals
16%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
76%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
42%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
48%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Teteks scores more
36%
level
25%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
39%

Detonit Plachkovica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teteks vs Detonit Plachkovica

Teteks beat Detonit Plachkovica 4-0 in Second League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion AMS in Tetovo.