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Teteks vs Belasica — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Belasica
Belasica
3/2/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Stadion AMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Teteks35%
×Draw25%
Belasica40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.38
Belasica
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Belasica
1.46

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Belasica
1.18

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Belasica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
60%
Teteks or Belasica
75%
Draw or Belasica
65%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
16%
Belasica wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
75%
Teteks 2+ goals
40%
Teteks 3+ goals
16%
Belasica 1+ goals
77%
Belasica 2+ goals
44%
Belasica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
47%
Belasica (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Belasica attack 1.46 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teteks scores more
35%
level
25%
Belasica scores more
40%

Belasica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Teteks 1–2 Belasica

Belasica beat Teteks 2-1 in Second League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion AMS in Tetovo.