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Teteks vs Aresimi — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aresimi
Aresimi
12/10/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion AMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Teteks36%
×Draw25%
Aresimi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.41
Aresimi
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Aresimi
1.49

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Aresimi
1.24

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Aresimi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
60%
Teteks or Aresimi
75%
Draw or Aresimi
64%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
16%
Aresimi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
76%
Teteks 2+ goals
41%
Teteks 3+ goals
17%
Aresimi 1+ goals
78%
Aresimi 2+ goals
44%
Aresimi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
47%
Aresimi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teteks scores more
36%
level
25%
Aresimi scores more
40%

Aresimi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teteks vs Aresimi

Aresimi beat Teteks 2-0 in Second League on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion AMS in Tetovo.