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Teskánd vs Zsámbéki SK — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zsámbéki SK
Zsámbéki SK
B. Pergel 75'
B. Szinay 64', 42'
M. Bonto 59', 57'
N. Sarkozi 63'
9/28/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 10Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd44%
×Draw21%
Zsámbéki SK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
2.10
Zsámbéki SK
1.84

Teskánd creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Zsámbéki SK
0.79

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Zsámbéki SK
3.05

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Zsámbéki SK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Zsámbéki SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
65%
Teskánd or Zsámbéki SK
79%
Draw or Zsámbéki SK
56%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
25%
Zsámbéki SK wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
88%
Teskánd 2+ goals
62%
Teskánd 3+ goals
35%
Zsámbéki SK 1+ goals
84%
Zsámbéki SK 2+ goals
55%
Zsámbéki SK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
56%
Zsámbéki SK (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Zsámbéki SK away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Zsámbéki SK defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.10

Zsámbéki SK attack 0.79 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teskánd scores more
44%
level
21%
Zsámbéki SK scores more
35%

Teskánd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Teskánd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
B. Szinay
57'
M. Bonto
59'
M. Bonto
63'
N. Sarkozi
64'
B. Szinay
75'
B. Pergel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teskánd vs Zsámbéki SK

Teskánd beat Zsámbéki SK 5-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 28, 2022.

Goals: B. Szinay (42', 64'), M. Bonto (57', 59'), N. Sarkozi (63'), B. Pergel (75').

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.