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Teskánd vs Puskás II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Puskás II
Puskás II
9/11/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 8Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd20%
×Draw20%
Puskás II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.21
Puskás II
2.19

Puskás II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Puskás II
1.48

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Puskás II
1.25

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
41%
Teskánd or Puskás II
80%
Draw or Puskás II
80%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
8%
Puskás II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
70%
Teskánd 2+ goals
34%
Teskánd 3+ goals
12%
Puskás II 1+ goals
89%
Puskás II 2+ goals
64%
Puskás II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
26%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Puskás II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Puskás II attack 1.48 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Teskánd scores more
20%
level
20%
Puskás II scores more
59%

Puskás II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 1–2 Puskás II

Puskás II beat Teskánd 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.