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Teskánd vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
B. Szinay 46'
M. Szabo 13'
A. G. Szilagyi 90+2'
N. Janos 83' (pen)
B. Lorincz 16'
4/9/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd19%
×Draw19%
Nagykanizsai ULE63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.26
Nagykanizsai ULE
2.42

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
37%
Teskánd or Nagykanizsai ULE
81%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
81%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
7%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
72%
Teskánd 2+ goals
36%
Teskánd 3+ goals
13%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
91%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
69%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
23%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Teskánd scores more
19%
level
19%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
63%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Szabo
16'
B. Lorincz
46'
B. Szinay
83'
N. JanosPenalty
90+2'
A. G. Szilagyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 2–3 Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Teskánd 3-2 in NB III - Southwest on April 9, 2023.

Goals: M. Szabo (13'), B. Lorincz (16'), B. Szinay (46'), N. Janos (83' pen), A. G. Szilagyi (90+2').

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.