Teskánd 0–5 Komárom: Result & Stats

Teskánd

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Komárom

G. Toth 81', 20', 18'

M. Bence 68'

Z. B. Nagy 65'

11/27/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 19Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd26%

×Draw21%

Komárom53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeskándExpected goals in this matchKomárom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.08

Teskánd

1.42

Komárom

2.08

Komárom creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

1.16

creates per match

1.28

2.89

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Teskánd

1.16

Komárom

1.28

allows per match

Teskánd

2.89

Komárom

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par

Komárom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Komárom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw

47%

Teskánd or Komárom

79%

Draw or Komárom

74%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+

11%

Komárom wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals

76%

Teskánd 2+ goals

41%

Teskánd 3+ goals

17%

Komárom 1+ goals

87%

Komárom 2+ goals

61%

Komárom 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)

33%

Komárom (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Komárom away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Komárom defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Komárom attack 1.28 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Teskánd scores more

26%

level

21%

Komárom scores more

53%

Komárom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Toth

20'

G. Toth

65'

Z. B. Nagy

68'

M. Bence

81'

G. Toth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff