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Teskánd vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
3/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 26Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd14%
×Draw17%
III. Kerületi TUE69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.02
III. Kerületi TUE
2.46

III. Kerületi TUE creates 141% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
III. Kerületi TUE
2.02

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
III. Kerületi TUE
0.88

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
31%
Teskánd or III. Kerületi TUE
83%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
86%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
5%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
64%
Teskánd 2+ goals
27%
Teskánd 3+ goals
8%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
91%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
70%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
17%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Teskánd scores more
14%
level
17%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
69%

III. Kerületi TUE at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 0–3 III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Teskánd 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.