Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teskánd vs Balatonfüredi — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
B. Pergel 79', 49' (pen)
M. Bonto 33'
B. Szabo 40' (pen)
8/3/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 2Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd27%
×Draw21%
Balatonfüredi52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.44
Balatonfüredi
2.08

Balatonfüredi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Balatonfüredi
1.28

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Balatonfüredi
1.72

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Balatonfüredi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
48%
Teskánd or Balatonfüredi
79%
Draw or Balatonfüredi
73%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
12%
Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
76%
Teskánd 2+ goals
42%
Teskánd 3+ goals
18%
Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
87%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
61%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
34%
Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Balatonfüredi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Balatonfüredi attack 1.28 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Teskánd scores more
27%
level
21%
Balatonfüredi scores more
52%

Balatonfüredi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Balatonfüredi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
M. Bonto
40'
B. SzaboPenalty
49'
B. PergelPenalty
79'
B. Pergel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 3–1 Balatonfüredi

Teskánd beat Balatonfüredi 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 3, 2022.

Goals: M. Bonto (33'), B. Szabo (40' pen), B. Pergel (49' pen, 79').

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.