Tervarit-j JuPa 0–1 KePS: Result & Stats

Tervarit-j JuPa

0 – 1

KePS

3/27/2024

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tervarit-j JuPa31%

×Draw21%

KePS48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tervarit-j JuPaExpected goals in this matchKePS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.09

Tervarit-j JuPa

1.66

KePS

2.09

KePS creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.43

2.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tervarit-j JuPa

1.75

KePS

1.43

allows per match

Tervarit-j JuPa

2.75

KePS

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tervarit-j JuPa+0.00on par

KePS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tervarit-j JuPa ↓

KePS →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tervarit-j JuPa or draw

52%

Tervarit-j JuPa or KePS

79%

Draw or KePS

69%

Winning margin

Tervarit-j JuPa wins by 2+

15%

KePS wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Tervarit-j JuPa 1+ goals

81%

Tervarit-j JuPa 2+ goals

49%

Tervarit-j JuPa 3+ goals

23%

KePS 1+ goals

88%

KePS 2+ goals

62%

KePS 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Tervarit-j JuPa (draw refunded)

39%

KePS (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tervarit-j JuPa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

KePS away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tervarit-j JuPa attack 1.75 + KePS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

KePS attack 1.43 + Tervarit-j JuPa defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tervarit-j JuPa scores more

31%

level

21%

KePS scores more

48%

KePS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KePS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff