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Teruel vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Teruel73%
×Draw19%
Valdefierro8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
2.03
Valdefierro
0.52

Teruel creates 290% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Teruel
1.90
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Teruel
0.59
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
92%
Teruel or Valdefierro
81%
Draw or Valdefierro
27%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
47%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
87%
Teruel 2+ goals
60%
Teruel 3+ goals
33%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
41%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
10%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
90%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 1.90 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.03

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Teruel defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Teruel scores more
73%
level
19%
Valdefierro scores more
8%

Teruel at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teruel vs Valdefierro

Teruel beat Valdefierro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.