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Teruel vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
5/4/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel33%
×Draw30%
Unionistas de Salamanca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.00
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.74
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Teruel
1.26
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
63%
Teruel or Unionistas de Salamanca
70%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
67%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
12%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
63%
Teruel 2+ goals
26%
Teruel 3+ goals
8%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
66%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
47%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Teruel scores more
33%
level
30%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
37%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Teruel 1–2 Unionistas de Salamanca

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Teruel 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.