Teruel 0–0 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Teruel

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

12/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 18Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Teruel72%

×Draw19%

San Juan Mozarrifar9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeruelExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.53

Teruel

1.99

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.53

Teruel creates 275% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

1.90

creates per match

0.46

0.59

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Teruel

1.90

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Teruel

0.59

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Teruel or draw

91%

Teruel or San Juan Mozarrifar

81%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

28%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+

46%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals

86%

Teruel 2+ goals

59%

Teruel 3+ goals

32%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

41%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

10%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)

89%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 1.90 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.99

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Teruel defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Teruel scores more

72%

level

19%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

Teruel at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Rodri Hernando← Ángel Acerete

56'

Sergio Cota← David Aparicio

69'

Adán Pérez← Borja Domingo

79'

Adrián Hernández← Alberto Gumiel

89'

Falo Burriel← Fran Rotellar

Teruel

San

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Laínez

56'▲Sergio Cota←▼David Aparicio

69'▲Adán Pérez←▼Borja Domingo

79'▲Adrián Hernández←▼Alberto Gumiel

Teruel substitutes

CotaPérezHernández

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Rodri Hernando←▼Ángel Acerete

89'▲Falo Burriel←▼Fran Rotellar

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

HernandoBurriel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Teruel 0–0 San Juan Mozarrifar

Teruel and San Juan Mozarrifar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.

Teruel vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Teruel 0–0 San Juan Mozarrifar