Teruel 2–2 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Teruel

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sabadell

Borja Giner 31'

Isma Sierra 28'

Toni Herrero 87'

Antonio Moyano 61'

11/25/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel45%

×Draw26%

Sabadell29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeruelExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Teruel

1.45

Sabadell

1.10

Teruel creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.74

creates per match

0.95

1.26

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Teruel

0.74

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Teruel

1.26

Sabadell

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Teruel or draw

71%

Teruel or Sabadell

74%

Draw or Sabadell

55%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+

22%

Sabadell wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals

77%

Teruel 2+ goals

42%

Teruel 3+ goals

18%

Sabadell 1+ goals

67%

Sabadell 2+ goals

30%

Sabadell 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)

61%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Sabadell defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teruel scores more

45%

level

26%

Sabadell scores more

29%

Teruel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

I. Sierra

28'

Isma Sierra

31'

Borja Giner

56'

Juanmi Carrión← Sander Ballero

61'

Antonio Moyano

63'

E. Cabetas

67'

David Aparicio← Ahn June-Hyuk

67'

Sergio Buenacasa← Borja Romero

78'

Marc Domènech← Cristian Herrera

80'

Tena

80'

F. Callejon

87'

Toni Herrero

90+3'

V. Kopotun← Manel Martínez

Teruel

Sabadell

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

67'▲David Aparicio←▼Ahn June-Hyuk

67'▲Sergio Buenacasa←▼Borja Romero

Teruel substitutes

AparicioBuenacasaGarcíaAlastueyRodríguezCorreiaSanchís

Manager: Óscar Cano

56'▲Juanmi Carrión←▼Sander Ballero

78'▲Marc Domènech←▼Cristian Herrera

90+3'▲V. Kopotun←▼Manel Martínez

Sabadell substitutes

CarriónDomènechKopotunGualdaSánchezFarrésBeitiaTouNaranjo