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Teruel vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
3/30/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel38%
×Draw28%
Real Unión34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.20
Real Unión
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.74
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Teruel
1.26
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
66%
Teruel or Real Unión
72%
Draw or Real Unión
62%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
16%
Real Unión wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
70%
Teruel 2+ goals
34%
Teruel 3+ goals
12%
Real Unión 1+ goals
67%
Real Unión 2+ goals
31%
Real Unión 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
53%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teruel scores more
38%
level
28%
Real Unión scores more
34%

Teruel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teruel vs Real Unión

Teruel beat Real Unión 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.