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Teruel vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
3/2/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel35%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.10
Rayo Majadahonda
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.74
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Teruel
1.26
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
64%
Teruel or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
65%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
14%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
67%
Teruel 2+ goals
30%
Teruel 3+ goals
10%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
50%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Teruel scores more
35%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
36%

Rayo Majadahonda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Teruel 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Teruel beat Rayo Majadahonda 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.