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Teruel vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
11/22/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Pinilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel43%
×Draw32%
Juventud Torremolinos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.10
Juventud Torremolinos
0.76

Teruel creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
75%
Teruel or Juventud Torremolinos
68%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
57%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
18%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
67%
Teruel 2+ goals
30%
Teruel 3+ goals
10%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
53%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
18%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
63%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.10

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teruel scores more
43%
level
32%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
25%

Teruel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teruel vs Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Teruel 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Pinilla in Teruel.