Teruel 2–1 Hércules: Result & Stats

Teruel

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hércules

10/5/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Pinilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel44%

×Draw32%

Hércules24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeruelExpected goals in this matchHércules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.71

Teruel

1.08

Hércules

0.71

Teruel creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.63

creates per match

0.95

0.47

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Teruel

0.63

Hércules

0.95

allows per match

Teruel

0.47

Hércules

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par

Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Hércules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Teruel or draw

76%

Teruel or Hércules

68%

Draw or Hércules

56%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+

18%

Hércules wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals

66%

Teruel 2+ goals

29%

Teruel 3+ goals

10%

Hércules 1+ goals

51%

Hércules 2+ goals

16%

Hércules 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)

65%

Hércules (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hércules attack 0.95 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teruel scores more

44%

level

32%

Hércules scores more

24%

Teruel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff