Teruel 1–1 Eldense: Result & Stats

Teruel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

9/13/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Pinilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel35%

×Draw36%

Eldense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeruelExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.71

Teruel

0.83

Eldense

0.71

Teruel creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.63

creates per match

0.95

0.47

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Teruel

0.63

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Teruel

0.47

Eldense

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Teruel or draw

72%

Teruel or Eldense

64%

Draw or Eldense

65%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+

12%

Eldense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals

56%

Teruel 2+ goals

20%

Teruel 3+ goals

5%

Eldense 1+ goals

51%

Eldense 2+ goals

16%

Eldense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)

55%

Eldense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Eldense attack 0.95 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Teruel scores more

35%

level

36%

Eldense scores more

28%

Teruel at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff