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Teruel vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
1/3/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel31%
×Draw29%
Cultural Leonesa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.02
Cultural Leonesa
1.21

Cultural Leonesa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.74
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Teruel
1.26
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
60%
Teruel or Cultural Leonesa
71%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
69%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
12%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
64%
Teruel 2+ goals
27%
Teruel 3+ goals
8%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
70%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
34%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
43%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teruel scores more
31%
level
29%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
40%

Cultural Leonesa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Teruel 0–0 Cultural Leonesa

Teruel and Cultural Leonesa drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.