Terre Sainte vs Olympique de Genève

Terre Sainte

CANC

00:00

Olympique de Genève

3/21/2021

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Terre Sainte46%

×Draw24%

Olympique de Genève30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Terre SainteExpected goals in this matchOlympique de Genève

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.31

Terre Sainte

1.67

Olympique de Genève

1.31

Terre Sainte creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

0.43

2.18

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Terre Sainte

1.48

Olympique de Genève

0.43

allows per match

Terre Sainte

2.18

Olympique de Genève

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Olympique de Genève →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw

70%

Terre Sainte or Olympique de Genève

76%

Draw or Olympique de Genève

54%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

24%

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

81%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

50%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

23%

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals

73%

Olympique de Genève 2+ goals

38%

Olympique de Genève 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

60%

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Terre Sainte scores more

46%

level

24%

Olympique de Genève scores more

30%

Terre Sainte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Terre Sainte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff