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Terre Sainte vs Lancy — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
FT
1 – 4
Lancy
Lancy
8/28/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Terre Sainte30%
×Draw22%
Lancy47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
1.52
Lancy
1.94

Lancy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Lancy
1.70

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Lancy
1.57

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Lancy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Lancy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
53%
Terre Sainte or Lancy
78%
Draw or Lancy
70%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
14%
Lancy wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
78%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
45%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
20%
Lancy 1+ goals
86%
Lancy 2+ goals
58%
Lancy 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
39%
Lancy (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Lancy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Lancy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lancy attack 1.70 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
30%
level
22%
Lancy scores more
47%

Lancy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Terre Sainte 1–4 Lancy

Lancy beat Terre Sainte 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Centre Sportif des Rojalets in Coppet.