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Terre Sainte vs Coffrane — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Coffrane
Coffrane
5/27/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Terre Sainte42%
×Draw22%
Coffrane36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
1.93
Coffrane
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Coffrane
1.38

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Coffrane
2.37

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Coffrane+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Coffrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
64%
Terre Sainte or Coffrane
78%
Draw or Coffrane
58%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
23%
Coffrane wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
85%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
57%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
30%
Coffrane 1+ goals
83%
Coffrane 2+ goals
53%
Coffrane 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
54%
Coffrane (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Coffrane away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Coffrane defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.93

Coffrane attack 1.38 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
42%
level
22%
Coffrane scores more
36%

Terre Sainte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Terre Sainte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Terre Sainte vs Coffrane

Terre Sainte beat Coffrane 4-3 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Centre Sportif des Rojalets in Coppet.