Terre Sainte 0–3 Chênois: Result & Stats

Terre Sainte

FT

0 – 3

Chênois

4/6/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Terre Sainte32%

×Draw22%

Chênois46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Terre SainteExpected goals in this matchChênois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.87

Terre Sainte

1.54

Chênois

1.87

Chênois creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

1.48

creates per match

1.55

2.18

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Terre Sainte

1.48

Chênois

1.55

allows per match

Terre Sainte

2.18

Chênois

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Chênois →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw

54%

Terre Sainte or Chênois

78%

Draw or Chênois

68%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

15%

Chênois wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

79%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

45%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

20%

Chênois 1+ goals

85%

Chênois 2+ goals

56%

Chênois 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

41%

Chênois (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chênois attack 1.55 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Terre Sainte scores more

32%

level

22%

Chênois scores more

46%

Chênois at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff