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Terrassa vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Terrassa
Terrassa
CANC
15:00
Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 38Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Terrassa46%
×Draw27%
Sant Andreu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terrassa
1.39
Sant Andreu
0.98

Terrassa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Terrassa
1.62
Sant Andreu
1.47

allows per match

Terrassa
0.50
Sant Andreu
1.16

finishing

Terrassa+0.00on par
Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terrassa ↓

Sant Andreu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Terrassa or draw
73%
Terrassa or Sant Andreu
73%
Draw or Sant Andreu
54%

Winning margin

Terrassa wins by 2+
22%
Sant Andreu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Terrassa 1+ goals
75%
Terrassa 2+ goals
40%
Terrassa 3+ goals
16%
Sant Andreu 1+ goals
62%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
26%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Terrassa (draw refunded)
64%
Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terrassa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terrassa attack 1.62 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Terrassa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Terrassa scores more
46%
level
27%
Sant Andreu scores more
27%

Terrassa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Terrassa host Sant Andreu

May 16, 2020: Terrassa take on Sant Andreu in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Terrassa host Sant Andreu at Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.