Terrassa 4–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Terrassa

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Sergi Arranz 88', 87'

Kilian Villaverde 23'

Adrià Molluna 1' (OG)

12/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Terrassa54%

×Draw26%

Pobla Mafumet20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TerrassaExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.79

Terrassa

1.48

Pobla Mafumet

0.79

Terrassa creates 87% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

1.62

creates per match

1.07

0.50

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Terrassa

1.62

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Terrassa

0.50

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terrassa+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terrassa ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Terrassa or draw

80%

Terrassa or Pobla Mafumet

74%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

46%

Winning margin

Terrassa wins by 2+

27%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

Team goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

77%

Terrassa 2+ goals

43%

Terrassa 3+ goals

19%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

55%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

19%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Terrassa (draw refunded)

73%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Terrassa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Terrassa attack 1.62 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Terrassa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Terrassa scores more

54%

level

26%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

20%

Terrassa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Adrià MollunaOwn goal

23'

Kilian Villaverde

46'

A. Mukai← Jaume Pascual

46'

Manu González← Nono

64'

K. L'Koucha← Albert Miravent

64'

Jordi Oribe← Bernat Guiu

68'

P. Katsavakis← Josu Rodríguez

71'

Albert Lopez← Kilian Villaverde

75'

Bruno Lorente← Z. El Idrissi

75'

Guillem Martínez← Iván de la Peña

79'

Óscar Gómez← Carlos Martínez

80'

Marc Muñoz← Emilio Lucas

87'

Sergi Arranz

88'

Sergi Arranz

Terrassa

Pobla

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Villaverd

Manager: Molist

46'▲A. Mukai←▼Jaume Pascual

46'▲Manu González←▼Nono

68'▲P. Katsavakis←▼Josu Rodríguez

71'▲Albert Lopez←▼Kilian Villaverde

80'▲Marc Muñoz←▼Emilio Lucas

Terrassa substitutes

MukaiGonzálezKatsavakisLopezMuñoz

Manager: Albert Company

64'▲K. L'Koucha←▼Albert Miravent

64'▲Jordi Oribe←▼Bernat Guiu

75'▲Bruno Lorente←▼Z. El Idrissi

75'▲Guillem Martínez←▼Iván de la Peña

79'▲Óscar Gómez←▼Carlos Martínez

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

L'KouchaOribeLorenteMartínezGómez

Match Recap: Terrassa vs Pobla Mafumet

Terrassa beat Pobla Mafumet 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 12, 2020.

Goals: Adrià Molluna (1' o.g.), Kilian Villaverde (23'), Sergi Arranz (87', 88').

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa in Terrassa.

Terrassa vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Terrassa vs Pobla Mafumet