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Terrassa vs Europa Fc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Terrassa
Terrassa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Terrassa43%
×Draw28%
Europa Fc29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terrassa
1.32
Europa Fc
1.02

Terrassa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Terrassa
1.62
Europa Fc
1.55

allows per match

Terrassa
0.50
Europa Fc
1.02

finishing

Terrassa+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terrassa ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Terrassa or draw
71%
Terrassa or Europa Fc
72%
Draw or Europa Fc
57%

Winning margin

Terrassa wins by 2+
20%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Terrassa 1+ goals
73%
Terrassa 2+ goals
38%
Terrassa 3+ goals
15%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
64%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
27%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Terrassa (draw refunded)
60%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terrassa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terrassa attack 1.62 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Terrassa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Terrassa scores more
43%
level
28%
Europa Fc scores more
29%

Terrassa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Terrassa 2–1 Europa Fc

Terrassa beat Europa Fc 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa in Terrassa.