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Hertha Berlin vs Hannover 96 — Bundesliga 2026

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
4/21/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Round 30Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hertha Berlin46%
×Draw23%
Hannover 9631%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.77
Hannover 96
1.40

Hertha Berlin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.35
Hannover 96
1.15

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.66
Hannover 96
2.18

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
69%
Hertha Berlin or Hannover 96
77%
Draw or Hannover 96
54%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
25%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
83%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
53%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
26%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
75%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
41%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
60%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.66 · 80 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.35 + Hannover 96 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hannover 96 attack 1.15 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
46%
level
23%
Hannover 96 scores more
31%

Hertha Berlin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
R. JarsteinHertha BerlinHertha Berlin · G
8.2

Match Events

11'
Per Ciljan Skjelbred
22'
Marvin Bakalorz
43'
Marko Grujić
55'
Mathew Leckie
60'
D. Selke← P. Skjelbred
73'
N. Müller← F. Muslija
76'
J. Dilrosun← M. Leckie
83'
Niklas Stark
84'
S. Soto← L. Maina
90+4'
F. Lustenberger← N. Stark

Possession

59%Hertha

Shots

16Hertha

Pass accuracy

54%Hertha

Statistics

HerthaHannover
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots13
5Corners8
14Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots13
3On Target5
8Off Target5
5Blocked3
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
443Total Passes298
354Accurate Passes200
80%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin 0–0 Hannover 96

Hertha Berlin and Hannover 96 drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on April 21, 2019.

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.