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Hertha Berlin vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
4/26/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 31Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin42%
×Draw25%
Hannover 9633%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.54
Hannover 96
1.32

Hertha Berlin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.55
Hannover 96
1.40

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.25
Hannover 96
1.53

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
67%
Hertha Berlin or Hannover 96
75%
Draw or Hannover 96
58%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
21%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
45%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
20%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
73%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
38%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
57%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
42%
level
25%
Hannover 96 scores more
33%

Hertha Berlin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs Hannover 96

Hertha Berlin and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.