Terracina Calcio 0–1 Sarrabus Ogliastra

Terracina Calcio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sarrabus Ogliastra

11/24/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Mario Colavolpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Terracina Calcio34%

×Draw27%

Sarrabus Ogliastra40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Terracina CalcioExpected goals in this matchSarrabus Ogliastra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.34

Terracina Calcio

1.21

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.34

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.71

creates per match

1.16

1.53

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Terracina Calcio

0.71

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.16

allows per match

Terracina Calcio

1.53

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terracina Calcio ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Terracina Calcio or draw

60%

Terracina Calcio or Sarrabus Ogliastra

73%

Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra

66%

Winning margin

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+

14%

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals

70%

Terracina Calcio 2+ goals

34%

Terracina Calcio 3+ goals

12%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

74%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

39%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)

46%

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terracina Calcio at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terracina Calcio attack 0.71 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Terracina Calcio defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Terracina Calcio scores more

34%

level

27%

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

40%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff