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Terracina Calcio vs Gelbison — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gelbison
Gelbison
9/8/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Mario Colavolpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Terracina Calcio25%
×Draw27%
Gelbison49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terracina Calcio
0.94
Gelbison
1.44

Gelbison creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Terracina Calcio
0.71
Gelbison
1.35

allows per match

Terracina Calcio
1.53
Gelbison
1.18

finishing

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par
Gelbison+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terracina Calcio ↓

Gelbison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Terracina Calcio or draw
51%
Terracina Calcio or Gelbison
73%
Draw or Gelbison
75%

Winning margin

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
9%
Gelbison wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
61%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
24%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
7%
Gelbison 1+ goals
76%
Gelbison 2+ goals
42%
Gelbison 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
34%
Gelbison (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terracina Calcio at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Gelbison away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terracina Calcio attack 0.71 + Gelbison defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Gelbison attack 1.35 + Terracina Calcio defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Terracina Calcio scores more
25%
level
27%
Gelbison scores more
49%

Gelbison at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gelbison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Terracina Calcio 1–1 Gelbison

Terracina Calcio and Gelbison drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Colavolpe in Terracina.