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Terracina Calcio vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
1/26/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 21Stadio Mario Colavolpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Terracina Calcio36%
×Draw28%
Atletico Uri36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terracina Calcio
1.21
Atletico Uri
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Terracina Calcio
0.71
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Terracina Calcio
1.53
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Terracina Calcio+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terracina Calcio ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Terracina Calcio or draw
64%
Terracina Calcio or Atletico Uri
72%
Draw or Atletico Uri
64%

Winning margin

Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
70%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
34%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terracina Calcio at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terracina Calcio attack 0.71 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Terracina Calcio defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Terracina Calcio scores more
36%
level
28%
Atletico Uri scores more
36%

Terracina Calcio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Terracina Calcio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Terracina Calcio 0–0 Atletico Uri

Terracina Calcio and Atletico Uri drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Colavolpe in Terracina.