Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teror vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Teror
Teror
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
4/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 28Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror33%
×Draw28%
Unión Sur Yaiza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teror
1.10
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.24

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Teror
0.88
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Teror
1.59
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Teror+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Teror or draw
61%
Teror or Unión Sur Yaiza
72%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
67%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+
13%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals
67%
Teror 2+ goals
30%
Teror 3+ goals
10%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
71%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
35%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)
45%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Teror scores more
33%
level
28%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
39%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teror vs Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Teror 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Pino in Gran Canaria.