Teror 0–3 Tenerife II: Result & Stats

Teror

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tenerife II

1/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror24%

×Draw26%

Tenerife II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TerorExpected goals in this matchTenerife II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.52

Teror

0.98

Tenerife II

1.52

Tenerife II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 74 away

0.88

creates per match

1.46

1.59

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Teror

0.88

Tenerife II

1.46

allows per match

Teror

1.59

Tenerife II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teror+0.00on par

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

Tenerife II →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Teror or draw

50%

Teror or Tenerife II

74%

Draw or Tenerife II

76%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+

Tenerife II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals

62%

Teror 2+ goals

26%

Teror 3+ goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals

78%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

45%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)

33%

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Teror scores more

24%

level

26%

Tenerife II scores more

50%

Tenerife II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff