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Teror vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Teror
Teror
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
9/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror27%
×Draw26%
Panadería Pulido46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teror
1.04
Panadería Pulido
1.45

Panadería Pulido creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

creates per match

Teror
0.88
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Teror
1.59
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Teror+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Teror or draw
54%
Teror or Panadería Pulido
74%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
73%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+
10%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals
65%
Teror 2+ goals
28%
Teror 3+ goals
9%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
77%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
42%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)
37%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Teror scores more
27%
level
26%
Panadería Pulido scores more
46%

Panadería Pulido at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Teror 0–2 Panadería Pulido

Panadería Pulido beat Teror 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Pino in Gran Canaria.