Teror 1–2 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Teror

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lanzarote

1/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror29%

×Draw27%

Lanzarote44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TerorExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.40

Teror

1.08

Lanzarote

1.40

Lanzarote creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

0.88

creates per match

1.20

1.59

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Teror

0.88

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Teror

1.59

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teror+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

Lanzarote →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Teror or draw

56%

Teror or Lanzarote

73%

Draw or Lanzarote

71%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+

11%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals

66%

Teror 2+ goals

29%

Teror 3+ goals

10%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

75%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

41%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)

40%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teror scores more

29%

level

27%

Lanzarote scores more

44%

Lanzarote at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff