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Teror vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Teror
Teror
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror38%
×Draw26%
La Cuadra36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teror
1.34
La Cuadra
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

creates per match

Teror
0.88
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Teror
1.59
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Teror+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Teror or draw
64%
Teror or La Cuadra
74%
Draw or La Cuadra
62%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+
17%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals
74%
Teror 2+ goals
39%
Teror 3+ goals
15%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
73%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
37%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)
51%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teror scores more
38%
level
26%
La Cuadra scores more
36%

Teror at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teror will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teror vs La Cuadra

Teror beat La Cuadra 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Pino in Gran Canaria.