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Teror vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Teror
Teror
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Arucas
Arucas
2/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Estadio Municipal El Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Teror33%
×Draw27%
Arucas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teror
1.17
Arucas
1.33

Arucas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Teror
0.88
Arucas
1.06

allows per match

Teror
1.59
Arucas
1.46

finishing

Teror+0.00on par
Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teror ↓

Arucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Teror or draw
60%
Teror or Arucas
73%
Draw or Arucas
67%

Winning margin

Teror wins by 2+
13%
Arucas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Teror 1+ goals
69%
Teror 2+ goals
33%
Teror 3+ goals
11%
Arucas 1+ goals
74%
Arucas 2+ goals
38%
Arucas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Teror (draw refunded)
45%
Arucas (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teror at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teror attack 0.88 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arucas attack 1.06 + Teror defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teror scores more
33%
level
27%
Arucas scores more
40%

Arucas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Teror 0–3 Arucas

Arucas beat Teror 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Pino in Gran Canaria.