Ternana 0–0 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ternana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Modena

4/6/2024

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ternana39%

×Draw28%

Modena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TernanaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.14

Ternana

1.26

Modena

1.14

Ternana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

1.13

creates per match

1.12

1.15

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ternana

1.13

Modena

1.12

allows per match

Ternana

1.15

Modena

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par

Modena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ternana or draw

67%

Ternana or Modena

72%

Draw or Modena

61%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+

17%

Modena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals

72%

Ternana 2+ goals

36%

Ternana 3+ goals

13%

Modena 1+ goals

68%

Modena 2+ goals

32%

Modena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)

54%

Modena (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Modena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.13 + Modena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Modena attack 1.12 + Ternana defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ternana scores more

39%

level

28%

Modena scores more

33%

Ternana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ternana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Iannarilli

Ternana · G

8.9

Match Events

18'

Matteo Cotali

32'

Gabriele Boloca

38'

Franco Carboni

46'

C. Dalle Mura← G. Boloca

54'

F. Distefano← G. Faticanti

54'

L. Amatucci← A. Favilli

57'

F. Abiuso← E. Gliozzi

57'

L. Di Stefano← E. Duca

65'

K. de Boer← G. Pereiro

66'

A. Raimondo← N. Pyyhtiä

66'

K. Bozhanaj← M. Cotali

67'

S. Oukhadda← L. Tremolada

68'

Giovanni Zaro

79'

A. Riccio← F. Ponsi

83'

Antonio Pergreffi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TernanaModena

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots26

5Corners4

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots26

0On Target10

5Off Target12

7Blocked4

7Inside Box18

5Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

313Total Passes534

223Accurate Passes442

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2