Ternana 2–4 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ternana

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Ascoli

D. Peralta 90+4'

C. Falletti 57'

F. Baschirotto 75'

F. Caligara 42' (pen)

F. Maistro 23', 20'

1/14/2022

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ternana41%

×Draw27%

Ascoli31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TernanaExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Ternana

1.32

Ascoli

1.11

Ternana creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 117 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Ternana

1.16

Ascoli

1.06

allows per match

Ternana

1.16

Ascoli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ternana or draw

69%

Ternana or Ascoli

73%

Draw or Ascoli

59%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+

19%

Ascoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals

73%

Ternana 2+ goals

38%

Ternana 3+ goals

15%

Ascoli 1+ goals

67%

Ascoli 2+ goals

30%

Ascoli 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)

57%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.16 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ascoli attack 1.06 + Ternana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ternana scores more

41%

level

27%

Ascoli scores more

31%

Ternana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ternana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Falletti

Ternana · M

8.7

Match Events

13'

Luca Ghiringhelli

20'

F. Maistro

23'

F. Maistro↳ S. Bidaoui

32'

Fabrizio Paghera

37'

Fabio Maistro

37'

M. Proietti← F. Paghera

37'

M. Defendi← L. Ghiringhelli

42'

F. CaligaraPenalty

45+1'

Tommaso D'Orazio

57'

C. Falletti↳ A. Donnarumma

58'

Fabrizio Caligara

64'

D. Šarić← F. Palazzino

66'

S. Pettinari← A. Donnarumma

73'

Alessandro Celli

74'

Frank TsadjoutPenalty cancelled

75'

F. Baschirotto

76'

A. Salzano← A. Celli

76'

D. Peralta← A. Partipilo

76'

A. Avlonitis← G. Bellusci

82'

M. Castorani← F. Maistro

82'

A. Iliev← F. Tsadjout

90+4'

D. Peralta↳ M. Defendi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TernanaAscoli

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots8

6Corners1

15Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots8

8On Target5

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

14Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

511Total Passes375

418Accurate Passes286

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0