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Ascoli vs Ternana — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ternana
Ternana
5/6/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ascoli44%
×Draw26%
Ternana30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.46
Ternana
1.17

Ascoli creates 25% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Ternana
1.24

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Ternana
1.73

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Ternana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
70%
Ascoli or Ternana
74%
Draw or Ternana
56%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
21%
Ternana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
77%
Ascoli 2+ goals
43%
Ascoli 3+ goals
18%
Ternana 1+ goals
69%
Ternana 2+ goals
33%
Ternana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
59%
Ternana (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Ternana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Ternana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ternana attack 1.24 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascoli scores more
44%
level
26%
Ternana scores more
30%

Ascoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ascoli 4 – 1 Ternana

Ascoli beat Ternana 4-1 in Serie B on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.