Ternana U19 0–1 Viterbese Castrense U19

Ternana U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viterbese Castrense U19

10/15/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 5Stadio Moreno Gubbiotti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ternana U1953%

×Draw23%

Viterbese Castrense U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ternana U19Expected goals in this matchViterbese Castrense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.18

Ternana U19

1.86

Viterbese Castrense U19

1.18

Ternana U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

1.72

creates per match

0.80

1.56

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ternana U19

1.72

Viterbese Castrense U19

0.80

allows per match

Ternana U19

1.56

Viterbese Castrense U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ternana U19+0.00on par

Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana U19 ↓

Viterbese Castrense U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ternana U19 or draw

76%

Ternana U19 or Viterbese Castrense U19

77%

Draw or Viterbese Castrense U19

47%

Winning margin

Ternana U19 wins by 2+

30%

Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ternana U19 1+ goals

84%

Ternana U19 2+ goals

55%

Ternana U19 3+ goals

28%

Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals

69%

Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals

33%

Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

Viterbese Castrense U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana U19 attack 1.72 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 0.80 + Ternana U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ternana U19 scores more

53%

level

23%

Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more

24%

Ternana U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ternana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff