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Ternana U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Ternana U19
Ternana U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
1/27/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 16Stadio Moreno Gubbiotti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ternana U1942%
×Draw24%
Spezia U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ternana U19
1.66
Spezia U19
1.47

Ternana U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ternana U19
1.72
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Ternana U19
1.56
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Ternana U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ternana U19 or draw
66%
Ternana U19 or Spezia U19
76%
Draw or Spezia U19
58%

Winning margin

Ternana U19 wins by 2+
22%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ternana U19 1+ goals
81%
Ternana U19 2+ goals
49%
Ternana U19 3+ goals
23%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
77%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
43%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana U19 attack 1.72 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Ternana U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ternana U19 scores more
42%
level
24%
Spezia U19 scores more
34%

Ternana U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ternana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ternana U19 vs Spezia U19

Ternana U19 and Spezia U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Moreno Gubbiotti in Narni.