Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Terengganu vs Stallion — AFC Cup 2018

Terengganu
Terengganu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stallion
Stallion
10/26/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Terengganu79%
×Draw12%
Stallion9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terengganu
3.50
Stallion
1.17

Terengganu creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Terengganu
1.67
Stallion
1.67

allows per match

Terengganu
0.67
Stallion
5.33

finishing

Terengganu+0.00on par
Stallion+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terengganu ↓

Stallion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Terengganu or draw
91%
Terengganu or Stallion
88%
Draw or Stallion
21%

Winning margin

Terengganu wins by 2+
61%
Stallion wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Terengganu 1+ goals
97%
Terengganu 2+ goals
85%
Terengganu 3+ goals
66%
Stallion 1+ goals
69%
Stallion 2+ goals
33%
Stallion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Terengganu (draw refunded)
90%
Stallion (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terengganu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Stallion away — creates 1.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terengganu attack 1.67 + Stallion defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.50

Stallion attack 1.67 + Terengganu defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Terengganu scores more
79%
level
12%
Stallion scores more
9%

Terengganu at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Terengganu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Terengganu 2–2 Stallion

Terengganu and Stallion drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium in Kuala Terengganu.